Pretenders & Contenders...Who's For Real?

We're a little over two months into the NHL's regular season and the standings are starting to align and give us an idea of what the playoff races might start to shape up as. And while it's too early to tell (you may recall the Atlanta Thrashers lead the Southeast Division on December 18th last year before failing to make the playoffs) it's time to start determining what teams are playoff contenders and who's hot starts are merely a mirage.

FLORIDA PANTHERS


Why they're a contender: Kevin Dineen, Gloves Off Hockey's pre-season Jack Adams award winner (I like to toot my horn horn wherever possible, should he win) has the completely overhauled Panthers playing like champions. Leading the Southeast and coming off wins over Boston, Washington, and San Jose, the Panthers have proven they can play with anyone. Jose Theodore has been solid and the power play is clicking at 19.2%, good for 8th in the NHL. Brian Campbell is enjoying a renaissance and is second among NHL defensemen in points and assists, which is huge considering the size and length of his contract. This is not your older brother's Panthers who have not made the playoffs in over a decade.
Why they're a pretender: Let's face it. Jose Theodore, Scott Clemmensen, and Jacob Markstrom are not exactly top-flight goaltenders. It makes you wonder when one is going to give out. Theodore has carried the bulk of the load and is 11-6-3 with a 2.39 GAA and a .920 SV%. But since 2002, Theodore has been a pedestrian goaltender and it makes one wonder when he's going to give out. The Panthers also give up the 7th-most shots per game in the league at 31.4 per game, leaving way too much work on the goaltenders. The biggest question in Sunrise is if the keepers will keep stopping pucks.
VERDICT: CONTENDER


MINNESOTA WILD

The Wild are off to a torrid start, sitting at 20-7-3,
good for best in the NHL.

Why they're a contender: The Wild are the best team in the NHL right now, which is remarkable to think about. They've won seven in a row and show no signs of slowing down. But how have they done it? A rebirth in their commitment to defense has gone a long way. The Wild are giving up just 2.10 goals per game, 3rd-best in the NHL. They win tight games (11-2-3 in one-goal games) and are shutting opponents down. They're scoring at the same rate as last year (up from 2.48 to 2.50 this year) but their GAA is down from 2.78, over a half a goal per game. When the Wild are playing tight defense, they're impossible to stop.
Why they're a pretender: In the high-flying Western Conference, you need to be able to score some goals. They have the third-most goals in their own division behind Vancouver and Edmonton. Dany Heatley has been very meh in his first season in Minnesota, posting 9 goals and 11 assists in his first 30 games, putting him on pace for 25 G and 30 A...a far cry from his 100+ point seasons in Ottawa a few years back. The Wild need to put a few pucks in the net because not every game, especially come playoff time, is going to be a 2-1 snooze-fest.
VERDICT: CONTENDER


ST. LOUIS BLUES


Why they're a contender: Man, oh man. Ken Hitchcock still has a little magic left in the wand, eh? 9-2-3 since Hitchcock took over as Blues coach, St. Louis has catapulted up the standings and finds themselves in playoff position. David Perron is back and doesn't appear hindered by a concussion that kept him out 97 games dating back to last season, posting 3 points in his first 4 games back. The Blues have balanced scoring and what may be most impressive is their team defense, though not surprising under a defensive mastermind such as Hitchcock. They have the best team defense in the NHL at 2.03 GAA, a marked improvement from last season when they yielded 2.78 goals against per game. Defense wins, and the Blues are playing some excellent D under Hitch.
Why they're a pretender: The team defense is stunning, yes, but at the backbone of it all is Brian Elliot. Elliot is a superhuman 12-2-0 with a 1.45 GAA and a .947 SV% on the year. These are stunning numbers, but can Elliot keep it up? Likely not. This is a guy who, while having a great year, had a GAA well over 3 last season and before that had never had a save percentage above .909. While Elliot's run is impressive and he will benefit from a tight defensive system, something has to give somewhere. His Jacques Plante-esque numbers can't continue, and when they go so will the Blues.
VERDICT: PRETENDER


TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Can Phil Kessel maintain his 50-goal pace?

Why they're a contender: Well, there's that Phil Kessel guy everyone has been talking about. Finally getting the scorer they thought they had when the Leafs gave up a pair of first rounders to the Bruins a few years back, Kessel has dazzled all season. He is a notably streaky scorer, but he hasn't shown many signs of cooling this season, posting 5 points in his last 5 games. Kessel, on pace for 50 goals, is getting help from Joffrey Lupul (13 G, 20 A) and the Leafs are getting solid defense out of Dion Phaneuf and Luke Schenn, who leads NHL defenseman in hits with 87. It's been an exciting start for the Leafs, who have not made the playoffs since before the lockout and with Kessel, Lupul, and Phaneuf leading the charge there's no reason to think it slows.
Why they're a pretender: Of course, there are a few reasons it could slow. As is a common denominator with many of these contender/pretender teams, you have to look between the pipes. James Reimer has a 2.96 GAA and a .896 SV% in 9 games. Ben Scrivens has a 2.96 and a .904 SV% in 8 games. And Jonas Gustavsson has a 3.13 GAA and a .901 SV% in 15 games. Those are all ugly numbers. Compound that with the Leafs second-worst penalty kill (74.3%) and the Leafs simply do not play enough defense to contend. Scoring goals is one thing, but you have to be able to play some sort of defense and the Leafs have shown no capacity to do so.
VERDICT: PRETENDER


DALLAS STARS


Why they're a contender: The Stars have turned everyone else trash into their treasure. Spending wisely in the off-season, the Stars added guys like Michael Ryder (9 G, 8 A), Sheldon Souray (4 G, 9 A, +7), and Radek Dvorak (3 G, 10 A) to a young, budding team. The results have been encouraging. Sitting atop the Pacific in a tie with Phoenix, the Stars have come out flying largely in part to Kari Lehtenon's resurgence. The Finnish netminder has been other-worldly, posting a 13-4-1 record to accompany a 2.34 GAA and a .926 SV%. Unfortunately for Lehtenon, his noodle groin has let him down again and he's shelved until after Christmas. The Stars will have to find a way to stay afloat in his absence.
Why they're a pretender: The Stars are very average. Their power play is 22nd, penalty kill 12th, they score the 19th most goals and they are 17th in GA. Since November 8th, when the Stars beat the Caps and moved to 11-3-0, they are 5-8-1 including losses to the Islanders, Maple Leafs, and Avalanche. In fact, in their 8 regulation losses since November 8th, they've been outscored 34-10, scoring one goal or less five times. The Stars are a very average team and their shortcomings are starting to show as the season wears on. They're a good story early on but do not have the firepower to hang in the Western Conference.
VERDICT: PRETENDER


GOH