Friday, December 16, 2011

Pegging the Top 5 Cup Contenders

The hot-button topic around the NHL today has been concussions, with Chris Pronger's career in jeopardy, Jeff Skinner and Joni Pitkanen sidelined in Carolina, Sidney Crosby missing action yet again, and Claude Giroux out in jeopardy. So, we're going to take this opportunity to talk about something completely different. It's only December, but who are the top five contenders to snag Lord Stanley's hardware come June?

The Bet 365 odds for the Stanley Cup pegs the Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, and Philadelphia Flyers at 13/2 favorites to win the Cup. But who are the real contenders?

1. Boston Bruins


The Bruins appear poised for another run, recovering from
a slow start to go 17-2-1 in their last 20.
After a slow start, the Bruins are on a tear. They're 17-2-1 since losing back-to-back games against Montreal at the end of October and appear to have cured their Cup hangover. The Bruins are sound in all facets of the game and can roll four solid lines. The Bruins penalty kill is third in the NHL at 87.9%, they win the most face-offs at 55.5%, they've given up the fewest goals at 2.00 goals allowed per game, are 10-2-0 when they score first, and have the most 5-on-5 goals in the NHL at 75. They're complete all the way through and are anchored by Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask's tandem, who have given up the fewest goals per game in the league despite the Bruins allowing the fifth-most shots per game. The Bruins are loaded for another Cup run. At this point the only question is whether or not they'll be able to maintain their stellar play all the way through June.

2. Philadelphia Flyers


With or without Chris Pronger and Claude Giroux, both of whom are out with concussions, the Flyers are deep and ready for a run. They finally have their goaltender in Ilya Bryzgalov, who is 10-1-1 since a 4-4-1 October. Rookie Matt Read has been exceptional, Scott Hartnell is on a career pace, and they've scored far and away the most goals in the league at 3.67 per game (110 total to Vancouver's 100). The Flyers don't appear to miss Mike Richards or Jeff Carter, both of whom are having their own struggles in their new towns. Wayne Simmonds is on pace for 25 goals which would top his career high of 16. Philly, finally backed by a goaltender, is in position to bring home its first Cup since 1975.

3. Vancouver Canucks


The Canucks, like their 2011 Stanley Cup Final opponents, started 2011-2012 slow. But the Canucks have turned a corner, save setbacks in Columbus and Carolina over the past few days. Vancouver doesn't appear to miss offensive defenseman Christian Erhoff; the 'Nucks power play is clicking at a league-best 25.4% and the Canucks have put up the 2nd-most goals in the NHL. Cory Schneider and Roberto Luongo have played admirably, especially as of late. Since getting embarrassed to the rival Blackhawks on November 16th, the Canucks have played 9-2-1 hockey. In the 9 wins, they gave up 9 goals. Vancouver is a very talented hockey team with something to prove. Talent, combined with a chip on its shoulder, can be a very dangerous thing.

4. Chicago Blackhawks


The 'Hawks are back after narrowly slipping into the playoffs in 2011. The Blackhawks are sitting in second-place in the Western Conference behind the pace-setting Minnesota Wild with a game in hand. Most importantly, the Hawks are 10-2-4 in one-goal games, showing they have some grit to match their talent. Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp all have 30+ points and are all in the top-20 in NHL scoring. The biggest question for Chicago will be goaltending. Corey Crawford has a 3.00 GAA an a sub-.900 save percentage. The Hawks are deep enough both on offense and on the back end to make up for it, and Crawford is certainly capable; he notched a 2.30 GAA to accompany a .917 SV% in 57 games last season. Once Crawford steadies himself, the Blackhawks will round out into a President's Trophy contender and eventually a Stanley Cup front-runner.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins


Logic would indicate that Sidney Crosby will be healthy by April. Even if he's not, the Penguins are good enough to make a run without him. How a team can be pegged a Cup favorite without arguable the best player in the world in the line-up speaks to the Penguins depth. But keep in mind they still have Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes, Evgeni Malkin and James Neal tied for the lead in team scoring with 29 points apiece, and have the NHL's 4th-best penalty kill at 87.5% (92.5% at home). The Penguins are a talent-laden, extremely deep hockey club and adding Crosby to a mix of Malkin, Neal, Jordan Staal, and Chris Kunitz is even scarier. When you can score goals like Pittsburgh, coupled with a goalie that can stop pucks like Fleury, the Penguins will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time.

BEST OF THE REST


The Rangers have outside hopes of making a Cup run and will benefit of the addition of Marc Staal should be back by playoff time. Detroit will be in the mix as usual, but their core is aging and they haven't made a ton of noise since losing to Pittsburgh in the Finals in 2009. Florida and Minnesota are having nice starts but are still a year or two away from being legitimate Cup contenders.

Who is your Cup favorite through the first 30 games? Post your comments below. Don't forget to submit a question at glovesoffhockey@gmail.com or on Twitter @glovesoffhockey for tomorrow's mailbag!

No comments:

Post a Comment