Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Blow It Up?

For the Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Anaheim Ducks, their positions in the standings are unfamiliar: the bottom. This is a Montreal team with 24 Cups, countless Hall of Famers, and an incredibly effective post-lockout team. For Tampa, it's a team that won a Stanley Cup just 8 years ago and was a win away from the Stanley Cup last year. Anaheim just won their first Stanley Cup in 2007 and boasted what was the best line in hockey of Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan to accompany other studs such as Teemu Selanne and goaltender Jonas Hiller. But these three teams, in particular, are strangers to the cellar. What is the problem, and more importantly, what is the answer?

The Canadiens have hamstrung themselves badly over the years. First the Mike Cammalleri signing and his obnoxious $6 million cap hit. That goes along with Scott Gomez's remarkable $7.357 cap hit which has seen him tally 19 goals in 170 games with the Canadiens. Tomas Plekanec and Brian Gionta each have $5 million cap hits, pushing the Canadiens to the cap threshold and leaving them with little room for flexibility while their free agent prizes flounder. The Canadiens have gotten away from what made them successful post-lockout. In 2005-2006, the year after the lockout under Claude Julien, the Canadiens roster featured guys like Michael Ryder, Saku Koivu, Mike Ribiero and Andrei Markov as four of their five leading scorers. What did they all have in common? They were all Montreal draft picks. The Canadiens built a quick, exciting team with their own guys before opening their check books and wasting millions upon millions. The Canadiens would serve themselves well to attempt to move their high priced assets (as with Mike Cammalleri last week) and add as many picks and prospects as possible to restock the cupboards. The Canadiens are not in need of a full-blown rebuild, but they are a few pieces away from getting themselves back into contention. The lesson from this, as the New York Rangers learned pre-lockout: NHL free agency is ineffective in building a team. It can only help bolster a roster into a Stanley Cup contender, not build one.

The Dwayne Roloson experiment is failing miesrably this
season in Tampa.
The Lightning are in a slightly different situation. They have a solid core of young guns in Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, Vincent Lecavalier is still lighting it up and Marty St. Louis doesn't seem to want to age. But the Lightning have struggled to find a netminder since Nikolai Khabibulin left, struggling through with starters like John Grahame, John Holmqvist, Marc Denis, Mike Smith, Antero Nittimaki, and now Dwayne Roloson. Roloson had a magical playoff run last season but his age (he's 42) is starting to show. He's posted a 3.68 GAA in 23 games this season and Mathieu Garon, who has taken over the bulk of starting, hasn't fared much better with a 3.02 GAA in 31 games played. The future doesn't look much brighter. Dustin Tokarski is Tampa's best goaltending prospect and has been toiling in the AHL for a couple of seasons since leaving the WHL. Even he has question marks about his small frame and isn't an immediate fix. So what is GM Steve Yzerman to do? Starting goalies don't grow on trees, but at this point it looks like Yzerman's best option is to plant that Dwayne Roloson tree in the back yard and hope he can rekindle some magic in the form of a starting goalie somewhere, somehow.

The Anaheim Ducks are a complete mess. Jonas Hiller has struggled, their top line has been ineffective. Ryan Getzlaf is on pace for 13 goals. Ryan, Getzlaf, and Perry are a combined -31. Trade rumors have circulated about Corey Perry, and perhaps the time is now to deal him. Perry could fetch a high return, likely a first rounder or two and a top prospect or two. The Ducks are not in need of a complete demolition of their roster, but Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu are inching closer to retirement every day and their contributions will need to be replaced. The Ducks have a decent prospect pool, but can Kyle Palmeiri and Emerson Etem be counted on to replace Teemu Selanne? Not yet, anyways. The Ducks need to add youth, and there's no easier way to do that than by moving one of their high-priced stars for pieces of the future.

All three teams have one thing in common: the need to add prospects. Youth is key in the NHL today. Free agency has it's place, but as many teams have learned, it's not the way to build a contender. Careful drafting and stockpiling of prospects is most effective. Perhaps the GMs in all three towns will get the memo before it's too late.

GOH

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