Sunday, August 7, 2011

Team Preview: Chicago Blackhawks

2010-2011: 97 points, 8th in Western Conference
Key additions: LW Andrew Brunette, LW Daniel Carcillo, D Steve Montador, D Sean O'Donnell, F Rostislav Olsez, G Ray Emery
Key departures: D Brian Campbell, RW Troy Brouwer, G Marty Turco, D Chris Campoli, C Jake Dowell, RW Fernando Pisani, RW Tomas Kopecky

Corey Crawford's success is key in Chicago.
Why they'll contend: The Hawks are still, at the core, the same team that won the 2010 Stanley Cup minus a few spare parts. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Marian Hossa still form an elite trio of forwards that are lethal on the power play that was 4th in the NHL last season. Andrew Brunette is a brilliant addition, adding some secondary scoring and solid two-way forward. Defensively the Hawks got tougher, trading softy Brian Campbell and his not-so-soft contract to Florida and opting to go with Steve Montador and Sean O'Donnell instead. This should bode well for the Hawks who at times were pushed around too easily. In goal the Hawks get an upgrade in Ray Emery over the aging Marty Turco which should be an upgrade behind Corey Crawford, who's ready to take another step forward in carrying the reigns. The Hawks had an evident Stanley Cup hangover in 2011, but in 2012 the Hawks should be more focused and ready to return to Cup-contender status. The Hawks have one of the best leaders in the game in Toews, the ability to score goals in bunches, an improved D corps and reliable goaltending; a lethal mix in a tight division which should lead the Hawks back to the top of the Western Conference.

Why they'll falter: After losing Kopecky, Brouwer, and Pisani, the Hawks lost a lot of secondary scoring. By relying on Toews, Kane, and Hossa too heavily, even being the dynamic players that they are, could be costly if the Hawks put all their eggs in one basket. The Hawks can definitely play a run-and-gun style but need to tighten up defensively if they want to compete in the West. Despite getting tougher on D and shedding his massive contract, Brian Campbell did put up 117 points over 3 seasons in Chicago which is not easily replaced from the back end. Corey Crawford excelled in 2011, but will he be able to continue to put up stellar numbers (33-18-6, 2.30 GAA, .917 SVP) in his sophomore campaign? The Hawks definitely have questions, as do most teams in the West, but are more fit to overcome them than many others. There is a lot of turnover in the locker room, some of which makes sense; but how much will Danny Carcillo cost them? How many extra penalties will the Hawks have to kill? Carcillo could be more of a clubhouse cancer than the Hawks needed, even if they want to get gritty; and frankly, the signing makes no sense. The Hawks are deep enough to make the run, the question is whether or not they'll be hungry and cohesive enough.

2012 prediction: 3rd in Western Conference
Leading scorer: Jonathan Toews, 33 G & 80 points
Bold prediction: Jeremy Morin will lead all Hawks in rookie scoring.

NEXT PREVIEW: COLORADO AVALANCHE

Saturday, August 6, 2011

Team Preview: Carolina Hurricanes

2010-2011: 91 points, 9th in Eastern Conference
Key additions: D Tomas Kaberle, G Brian Boucher, C Tim Brent, W Anthony Stewart, LW Alexei Ponikarovsky
Key departures: F Erik Cole, D Joe Corvo

Why they'll contend: The Hurricanes slightly upgraded their roster in the off-season, adding defenseman Tomas Kaberle to replace Joe Corvo who had asked for a trade over the summer. Goaltender Cam Ward is one of the game's elite and the Hurricanes have a dynamic mix of young forwards in Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner, and Brandon Sutter. The Canes made slight tweaks to their bottom two lines, adding Anthony Stewart from Winnipeg who was coming off a career-high 14 goal season and Tim Brent from Toronto who adds penalty killing depth. The addition of Kaberle could provide a huge boost to the back end. Despite sub-par play in Boston after the trade deadline, Kaberle is still a dynamic defenseman who could fit into Carolina's power play nicely. The Canes missed the playoffs by the equivalent of one win last season, losing in their final game. With a successful summer for the ever-shrewd GM Jim Rutherford, which included re-signing Jussi Jokinken and Joni Pitkanen and bringing in back-up goaltending help in Brian Boucher, minor adjustments may pay off big. If Alexei Ponikarovsky can contribute in Carolina the way he did in Toronto two years ago, the Canes will be in excellent shape to return to the playoffs.

Skinner will need to avoid a sophomore slump in 2012.
Why they'll falter: While the Canes made some nice acquisitions over the summer, most of them are anything from a sure bet. Ponikarovsky has struggled since leaving Toronto, as has Tomas Kaberle, and Anthony Stewart didn't even play in the NHL in 2009-2010 after being demoted in Florida. Calder Trophy winner Jeff Skinner will enjoy a more expanded role, but will he be a victim of a sophomore slump? Skinner was dynamic as a rookie but leaning to much on a 19-year-old kid is never Plan A, regardless of his skill and maturity levels. The Canes could use a stay-at-home defenseman and may struggle keeping pucks out of their own net and their penalty kill needs work, finishing in the bottom third in 2010-2011. Having Brian Boucher as a reliable back-up to Cam Ward will take the workload off of the netminder who lead the NHL in minutes last year with 4,318. But if Boucher falters the load will be back on Ward which may not be something the Canes can handle. Playing in a loaded Southeast Division, Carolina may not be deep enough for a playoff run in 2012.

2012 prediction: 10th in Eastern Conference
Leading scorer: Eric Staal, 32 & 65
Bold prediction: Coach Paul Maurice is fired before Christmas.

NEXT PREVIEW: CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

Friday, August 5, 2011

Team Preview: Calgary Flames

2010-2011: 94 points, 10th in Western Conference
Key additions: D Chris Butler
Key departures: D Steve Montador

Why they'll contend: The Flames benefited immensely in 2011 from the breakout season of Curtis Glencross, who notched 24 goals. With another season like this from Glencross and an expanded role from center Mikael Backlund, the Flames could quietly score some goals. Not to mention that Jarome Iginla guy who was good for 43 goals last season. Miikka Kiprusoff has been a standby for years, starting 71 games for the Flames last season and posting a respectable 2.63 GAA and .906 SVP. With the addition of Butler on defense, the Flames defense corps adds youth to an already young back end (median age of the Flames defense is 27.0) and while the Flames don't have any dynamic defenseman they have a sturdy back end in front of Kiprusoff. The Flames were quiet in the off-season and may be putting blind faith into what is essentially a carbon copy of a roster that missed the post-season by 3 points in 2011. But with Iginla, Kiprusoff, Glencross and what should be a reliable defense, the Flames could squeak in in 2012.

Iginla must be superhuman if Calgary wants a playoff berth.
Why they'll falter: Realistically speaking, it's time for a rebuild in Calgary. Iginla and Kiprusoff aren't getting any younger and have been the cornerstones in Alberta for a decade. The prospect pool is water thin and without a strong second half last season they would have missed the playoffs by an Alberta mile. Moving Iginla is hard to fathom, but if the Flames want to maximize their return on their captain it'd be best to move him early. The question is whether or not anyone will take on his $7 million cap hit for another season (his contract expires in 2013). The Flames intend to lean on Glencross, but how realistic is it that Glencross can produce at the clip he did in 2010-2011? The Flames need more contributions out of their defense and need to tighten up in tight games with the margin of error so thin in the Western Conference. The Flames were 20th in the NHL in one-goal games in 2011, something that needs to be fixed under Brent Sutter's regime. The Flames are likely closer to a top-10 pick than a Stanley Cup ring in 2012, but it's up to GM Jay Feaster to realize this and start building for the future now.

2012 prediction: 13th in Western Conference
Leading scorer: Jarome Iginla, 36 goals & 74 points
Bold prediction: Jay Bouwmeester will score 10 goals for the first time as a member of the Flames.

NEXT PREVIEW: CAROLINA HURRICANES

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Team Preview: Buffalo Sabres

2010-2011: 96 points, 7th in Eastern Conference
Key additions: D Christian Erhoff, F Ville Leino, D Robyn Regehr,
Key departures: D Steve Montador, D Chris Butler, F Tim Connolly

Ryan Miller's play will be pivotal to the Sabres success.
Why they'll contend: It goes without saying the Sabres are solid on the back end. Ryan Miller is an elite level goaltender who should benefit from a restful off-season and the defense corps has been solidified with the additions of Regehr and Erhoff, the latter coming in off a loaded Vancouver team that made a run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals in 2011. Ville Leino's contract could be a risk but he could be an ace in the hole coming off a career-high 19 goal campaign in Philadelphia. Forwards Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe are both primed to make significant contributions at the NHL level and the Sabres finally have deeper pockets under new owner Terry Pegula to make any adjustments they need mid-season. The Sabres are deeper than in the past and for the first time ever have splurged in the off-season, pushing their cap to the limit. With a healthy, rejuvenated Ryan Miller and an upgraded back-end the Sabres should compete for the top of the Northeast Division.

Why they'll falter: The club took big risks on Erhoff and Leino in the off-season, with Leino being the bigger risk of the two. Leino will have to put his contract to good use if the Sabres want to take the next step. The offense as typically average, and Tomas Vanek and Jason Pominville will be expected to carry the load as usual, though the two have never had tremendous amounts of post-season success. If Ryan Miller plays like the 2010-2011 Ryan Miller as opposed to his Vezina trophy winning 2009-2010 season the Sabres may be in trouble, though back-up Jhonas Enroth is more than capable of picking up some slack if Miller falters. The Sabres will need to get significant contributions out of their back end if they want to make a deep run. Erhoff will be relied on to quarterback a power play that finished 9th in the NHL last year and should be a marked improvement. If Miller, Vanek, and the off-season acquisitions struggle in 2012 it could be a disappointing finish in Buffalo yet again.

2012 Predictions:
FINISH: 3rd in Eastern Conference, Northeast Division champions
LEADING SCORER: Tomas Vanek, 30 goals & 71 points
SURPRISE OF THE YEAR: Tyler Ennis will finish with more goals than Ville Leino.

NEXT PREVIEW: CALGARY FLAMES

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Team Preview: Boston Bruins

2010-2011: 103 points, 3rd in Eastern Conference, 1st in Northeast Divsion, Stanley Cup champions
Key additions: W Benoit Pouliot
Key departures: D Tomas Kaberle, F Mark Recchi

Why they'll contend: The Stanley Cup belongs to the Boston Bruins until June of 2012 and there's no reason to think they can't reclaim it. The Bruins were pretty quiet in the off-season with most of the adieu being made of Tomas Kaberle's departure. Kaberle was quiet in Boston, at times struggling, but a full season in Boston may have done wonders. Instead he bolted for Carolina and the Bruins are left with a very similar roster to 2011 which could pose a problem. The Bruins hunger will be the biggest issue: will they be able to re-create the magic from this past year? The Bruins are still as solid as anyone defensively, with Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenburg anchoring a very promising blue line. Tuukka Rask may be leaned on more in the coming season as Tim Thomas ages and is coming off a season where he played 82 games between the regular season and the playoffs. Rask's play could go a long way in pushing the Bruins back to the top of the Northeast Division.

Tyler Seguin will need a big sophomore year in Boston.
Why they'll falter: The Bruins stayed quiet this off-season while Buffalo and Toronto most notably improved around them. Tim Thomas is aging...can he continue his Vezina-worthy form? Will the Bruins goal scoring deficiencies finally catch up to them? Despite having a similar roster to their Cup team from 2011, the Bruins still have some question marks. Mark Recchi's absence will be huge both on the ice and in the dressing room. Marc Savard's absence will catch up to them some day despite being very well-off at the center position. Tyler Seguin will need a big year up the middle, but is it realistic to expect huge things from a 19-year-old kid who put up just 22 points in his rookie campaign? The Bruins will definitely be intriguing to watch in 2012, but I do expect a slow start out of the gate.

2011-2012 PREDICTION: 6th in Eastern Conference
LEADING SCORER: Patrice Bergeron, 70 points
SURPRISE OF THE YEAR: Tuukka Rask earns the starting job after Tim Thomas struggles out of the gate.

NEXT PREVIEW: BUFFALO SABRES 

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Team Preview: Anaheim Ducks

2010-2011: 99 points, 4th in Western Conference
Key additions: C Andrew Cogliano, D Mathieu Carle
Key departures: C Kyle Chipchura, C Todd Marchant, D Andy Sutton
Bobby Ryan could eclipse 40 goals in 2012.

Why they'll contend: The Ducks have one of the best, if not the best, lines in the league in Corey Perry-Ryan Getlzaf-Bobby Ryan. Scoring goals won't be a problem at the Pond this season and some of the Ducks talented prospects like Emerson Etem may get a chance to crack the big club. In goal the Ducks are solid as always with Swiss keeper Jonas Hiller tending the pipes and coming off a year where his .924 save percentage was good for 5th in the NHL. The Ducks may not be the deepest team in the NHL, but their sheer firepower is enough to get them into the playofs.

Why they'll falter: Losing Andy Sutton could prove more costly than many think. His 6'5" frame, despite mobility issues, is important and Sutton is shot-blocking machine when healthy. He only played 39 games in 2010-2011, but in 2009-2010 he was 2nd in the NHL in blocked shots. Teemu Selanne will be relied on to have a huge season, but the fact of the matter is he's 41 and has to run out of steam eventually. Hopefully for the Ducks, it won't be this year. Cam Fowler will be leaned on more frequently this season, but he was a -25 last year and was playing over 22 minutes a game. Fowler will need to improve defensively if the Ducks have a shot at advancing deep this season.

Outlook: The Ducks offensive ability is enough to get them into the playoffs, even in a high-flying Western Conference. Perry, Getzlaf, and Ryan combined for 103 goals and 245 points last year, which was 43% of the team's goals. Secondary scoring will be at a premium in Anaheim which could be a downfall and prohibit a deep playoff run, but the Ducks are just deep enough to make it to the postseason and make some noise when they get there.

2012 Predictions: 
FINISH: 7th in Western Conference
LEADING SCORER: Corey Perry, 46 goals & 92 points
SURPRISE OF THE YEAR: Teemu Selanne will fail to eclipse 20 goals.

NEXT PREVIEW: BOSTON BRUINS

Monday, August 1, 2011

Team Previews: Standings

Now that this blog has been dead for a few weeks as July dragged on, the dog days of summer are officially here as the clock flips to August. We will be breaking down each team in the NHL over the course of the month, but first we take a look at the bigger picture. As a newly-christened NHL blogger (as opposed to just a Thrashers writer) I am blessed with the privilege of incorrectly predicting where 30 teams in the NHL will finish. And so, here goes nothing:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

NORTHEAST DIVISION

1. Buffalo Sabres
2. Boston Bruins
3. Montreal Canadiens
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Ottawa Senators

The breakdown: The Bruins will likely suffer a Stanley Cup hangover out of the gate (quite possibly literally after some of their bar tabs) and Buffalo will benefit from the wave of excitement after a big off-season under Terry Pegula's new regime. Montreal will compete for one of the bottom playoff spots in the Eastern Conference and Toronto and Ottawa will continue their rebuild. Toronto will again make steps in the right direction but are still a year and a good GM away from making a real run.

Marian Gaborik's heath in crucial to the Rangers.
ATLANTIC DIVISION


1. Philadelphia Flyers
2. New York Rangers
3. Pittsburgh Penguins
4. New Jersey Devils
5. New York Islanders

The breakdown: This may be the toughest division in hockey and looking ahead is the toughest to predict. The Rangers will benefit immensely from a healthy Marian Gaborik, if he can stay so, and free agent trophy Brad Richards who is reunited with old coach John Tortorella. The Devils are on a steady decline and despite their impressive finish to last season it's tough to envision them competing in such a loaded division. This will also likely be the Islanders last season in last place for a while as their rebuild continues to move along impressively.  What more can be said about the Flyers? They got the goaltender they needed and got a little younger. Not only that, but improved cap flexibility will help GM Paul Holmgren swing a deal they were previously unable to make mid-season because of cap constraints. The Atlantic will be a battle from start-to-finish, undoubtedly.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION


1. Washington Capitals
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Florida Panthers
4. Carolina Hurricanes
5. Winnipeg Jets

The breakdown: This is an extremely intriguing division. The Capitals have loaded up by adding Tomas Vokoun between the pipes and should contend for the top spot. Tampa Bay will trail just a few points in the standings and goaltending may be an issue. The Panthers chemistry will be the biggest question with a complete roster overhaul in the off-season by GM Dave Tallon. Florida, Carolina, and Winnipeg should all be within a few points for each other and may all battle for a playoff spot. Winnipeg pulls up the rear, considering they finished just 8 points ahead of Florida for last place last season and failed to improve like their divisional counterparts and will have a rigorous travel schedule until the divisions re-align in 2012-2013.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

CENTRAL DIVISION

1. Chicago Blackhawks
2. Detroit Red Wings
3. Nashville Predators
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
5. St. Louis Blues

The breakdown: Chicago made subtle moves to improve, but bringing in Andrew Brunette is a massive acquisition for the Hawks and should fit in nicely. Detroit is aging but still incredibly dangerous as always. Nashville and Columbus should compete for the bottom playoff spots in the Western Conference, but the question is whether or not Columbus will be able to get off to a hot start. With new acquisitions Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski expected to be leaned on heavily in Ohio, Jackets fans definitely have reason for optimism. The Blues seem to be trending backwards after what appears to be a rebuild on verge of flickering out. The Central could be pretty crowded at the top this season, with a lot of new talent coming and going from top to bottom.

NORTHWEST DIVISION


1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Minnesota Wild
3. Colorado Avalanche
4. Calgary Flames
5. Edmonton Oilers

The breakdown: Vancouver will return hungry after falling a win away from a Stanley Cup in 2011. Minnesota is vastly improved with sniper Dany Heatley and skilled forward Devin Setoguchi coming in from San Jose. Colorado will benefit from improved goaltending and their core getting a year older, while Calgary and Edmonton will battle for the bottom for two different reasons: Calgary is on the verge of a rebuild while Edmonton is breaking out of one. If Edmonton doesn't escape the basement this season, they surely will in 2012-2013 with one of the league's most dynamic groups of young talent.
Mike Richards will play a huge role in Los Angeles.

PACIFIC DIVISION


1. Los Angeles
2. San Jose
3. Anaheim
4. Phoenix
5. Dallas

The breakdown: The Kings made some splashes in the off-season, most notably adding Mike Richards from Philadelpha and Simon Gagne from Tampa Bay, which I believe will give them enough firepower to overcome San Jose for the top spot in the division. San Jose and Anaheim will be evenly matched for the second spot, and while San Jose has improved defensively Anaheim still has a ton of firepower in Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan. Phoenix will likely finish on the outside looking in this season and will likely relocate afterwards, unfortunately. Dallas has begun it's rebuild as well and will bring up the rear in the Pacific for another season.

UPCOMING in the next 30 days will be team-by-team breakdowns as we count down towards training camp in September.